"International Workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Marketing"

Date	September 1-2, 2010
Place	Osaka University, "Machikaneyama Hall”
Aim and Scope	Bayes methods have been developed over last decades and they have been, in particular, successfully applied to wide range of marketing problems with a variety of data sources. On this international workshop, we discuss updated methodology as well as innovative applications with guest speakers having leading achievements. The topics include database marketing, CRM, consumer behavior models, marketing dynamics, Bayesian network, e.t.c.
Guest Speakers	In alphabetical order, Greg Allenby (Ohio State University, USA) Jaehwan Kim (Korea University, Korea) Peter Lenk (University of Michigan, USA) Puneet Manchanda (University of Michigan, USA) Thomas Otter (Goethe University, Germany)
Sponsor	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) No.21243030 (PI: Nobuhiko Terui, Tohoku University)
Cosponsor	The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

September 1st, 2010

[Session 1] 10:30-12:20

Chair: Nozomi Nakajima (Osaka University)

1. Thomas Otter (Goethe Univerty)(60 min)
   "How to control for successive sample selection and when does it matter for management decisions"
2. Eiji Motohashi (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies) (25min)
   "A State Space Modeling for Consumer Brand Choice Behavior"
3. Takuya Satomura (Keio University) (25min)
   "Multiple constraint choice models and their applications"

Lunch 12:20-13:30

[Session 2] 13:30-15:20

Chair: Makoto Abe（University of Tokyo）

1. Puneet Manchanda (University of Michigan) (60min)
   "An Empirical Analysis of Individual Level Casino Gambling Behavior"
2. Masataka Ban (Mejiro University) (25min)
   "A Brand Choice Model for TV Advertising Management using Single-Source Data"
3. Wirawan Dony Dahana (Osaka University) (25min)
   "Investigating Variety Seeking Behavior Across Multiple Product Categories"

Coffee Break 15:20-15:50

[Session 3] 15:50-17:40

Chair: Fumiyo Kondo (University of Tsukuba)

1. Greg Allenby (Ohio State University) (60min)
   "Identifying Unmet Demand"
2. Tadahiko Sato (University of Tsukuba)(25min)
   "Brand Choice Model with Expected Display Promotion"
3. Makoto Abe (University of Tokyo) (25min)
   "RFM Measures and Customer Lifetime Value: Investigating the Behavioral Relationship in a Non-Contractual Setting"

Reception 　18:00-20:00 Machikaneyama-Hall

September 2nd, 2010

[Session 4] 10:00-12:15

Chair: Tadahiko Sato (University of Tsukuba)

1. Jaehwan Kim (Korea University) (60min)
   "Movie Choice under Joint Decision: Reassessment of Online WOM Effect"
2. Tomohiko Inoue (University of Tsukuba) (25min)
   "Sales Call Effectiveness in the Japanese Pharmaceutical Industry"
3. Fumiyo Kondo (University of Tsukuba）(25min)
   "Estimation of yearly changing coefficients on mobile coupon promotion based on hierachical Bayesian approach"
4. Nobuhiko Terui (Tohoku University)(25min)
   "Dynamic Joint Space Map: Modeling Changes of Preference by Consumption Experience"

Lunch: 12:15-13:30

[Session 5] 13:30-15:45

Chair: Nobuhiko Terui (Tohoku University)

1. Peter Lenk (University Of Michigan) (60min)
   "A Probit Model with Structured Covariance for Similarity Effects and Source of Volume Calculations"
2. Satoshi Kabe (University of Tsukuba) (25min)
   "On estimation of the almost ideal demand system model with markov switching"
3. Sotaro Katsumata (University of Tokyo) (25min)
   "Incorporating spatial prior information into a time-series model of consumer spending and store visit."
4. Yoichi Motomura (Advanced Industrial Science and Technology）(25min)
   "Probabilistic consumer behavior modeling and inference using Bayesian networks"

Closing Address:　15:30-15:45